Tonight we are faced with the challenge of sifting through 12 games to determine the best DFS lineup. Looking at the context of the slate, I am noticing only a handful of pitchers who stand out as good plays and nearly all cost top dollar. This logically points to a lot of potential for offense tonight. You can always find good plays on a slate this big at all price points, but expensive OFs are one place I want to spend my money tonight. There are a bunch of great options at the top. Let’s shift our gaze and look at this slate another way…
In the last 14 days there are 6 teams whose offense is performing at a rate that is 20% above average in terms of runs created. All 6 have a K rate that is below average (22%) and all but BAL have a walk rate that is above average. These two statistics are extremely important to determining good run environments. Today we have a number of teams who have below average K% projected vs the starting pitcher. Here is a list as well as my rough calculation: OAK 18%, CLE 18%, PIT 19%, SD 17%, MIN 16%, TEX 16%, LAA 13%, HOU 18%, PHI 20%, NYM 20%, KC 15%. Doing similar calculations I am predicting there to be elevated BB rates in MIN, TEX, HOU and KC. KC has the best barrel rates over the last 30 days and 14 days out of these teams highlighted above. I am planning to dig deeper into all of these environments, but KC is currently standing out as an offense to target tonight.
Here are some other teams to consider. The NYM have the 3rd best wRC+ vs lefties and the best barrel rates behind only NYY over the last 30 days. Jesus Luzardo does not have a great 4 seam fastball (outside of velocity) and has been struggling lately. The Mets righty batters could have a big day at their home park. The LAA have some guys who can take advantage of lefty pitching, especially if they are only striking out at a 13% clip. PHI has great barrel rates and gets a decent matchup in a great hitter’s park. They are in consideration tonight. PIT has been putting together good numbers on the balls they put into play. Their problem has always been plate discipline, but facing Miles Mikolas should fix some of that. PIT has some fun and cheap 5 man stacks that are in play.
Finally, there are groups of players that are carrying their team. I think of Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor on CLE or Fernando Tatis and Ha Seong Kim on SD, Royce Lewis on MIN, Yordan Alvarez on HOU, or Rooker and Langeliers on OAK. Forming 3 man stacks with some of these teams with incredibly hot players in good matchups is another +EV way to play tonight’s slate.
Check below for more of my highlighted options and always check My Twitter for a chart containing all of the relevant data about SPs and their matchup.
New to DFS? You can start playing right now on Underdog and put our picks to the test. If you’re scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray, it helps support your Razzball team!
Paul Skenes, SP: $9,400 – Skenes is a young pitcher with one significant wart so far, HRs. Otherwise, he generates a lot of Ks and by the numbers could strikeout 36% of batters tonight. With a 50% GB rate, that means 32% of batters will hit a ground ball. A small percentage might walk and the rest have a chance to upend his game, but the chance is small. Skenes is the best pitching play tonight.
Tylor Megill, SP: $7.300 – Megill will not be as high owned as Skenes, but he is well known and everyone likes to attack the Miami Marlins. Megill has had some walk issues historically, but MIA has the lowest walk rate. Megill should be just fine if that holds.
Logan O’Hoppe, C: $3,900 – The Angels get to face a lefty who has been struggling to start the year. Maybe it’s because Montgomery signed late, but he has not been good and the Angels, including O’Hoppe, hit lefties very well. This is a nice spot.
Rowdy Tellez, 1B: $2,600 -I teach at an all boys school and my wife is due in July with our first boy. I don’t know who tempts fate by just naming their boy Rowdy, but Tellez is gonna get that way tonight after PIT and their fast bats take Mikolas to task.
Willi Castro, 2B: $4,100 – This is the position with the least options by far, but Castro and his solid production get 2B eligibility which is a plus for the position. Castro often contributes and it’s because he has such a good hit tool and great speed. The team and matchup are a plus as well.
Alec Bohm, 3B: $5,700 – This is a price I am mostly unwilling to pay, but right handed bats in Fenway just get such a boost. Bohm rarely strikes out and he puts the ball in play with such good contact that the park is going to raise his ceiling a bit. I could see a multi hit day for Bohm on an offense that should generate some runs.
O’Neil Cruz, SS: $4,300 – There are plenty of solid plays at the SS position so price and team stack are probably guiding your decisions. Cruz has some of the best hard hit data in the game and Mikolas is gonna make the K% more palatable while he is in there.
Fernando Tatis Jr., OF: $5,600 – Tatis is proving that he is a 1st round draft pick for fantasy baseball again, He is scorching hot and he gets a great matchup. The team around him is also hitting the ball well so he has plenty of opportunities for Rs/RBI. This is one of many great spend up options at OF.
Jackson Merrill, OF: $3,500 – You can pair these two together quite well. Merrill has been putting solid contact on the ball and although he strikes out more than I would like, he gets a good matchup for that tonight. Stack some Padres!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Once again, very few happy pills are available today because it’s going to be beautiful across the US. Kansas City has some of the warmest weather with a little wind pushing the ball out of the park. Look below for more info on that…
Doing Lines In Vegas
The highest O/U on the day is in Kansas City. Not only is the weather good, but the Yankees and Royals are two of the better offenses in baseball. NYY are favored by almost a full run, but I wouldn’t look past the Royals offense who will have that ball in play a lot today. The Angels and DBacks are projected for 9 runs with the home team favored. I think the totals go over that and that the underdog Angels have a good chance to pull off the upset.
