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N1003U
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: BSL/FRA or PHL
Programs: LH Miles and More, DL SkyMiles, Bonvoy, Hilton
Posts: 2,335
Originally Posted by moops380
In Y, LOT had plenty of lax seats. While not glamorous, having 3 seats in coach per person isn't exactly roughing it.
Thanks, but unfortunately I was looking for C.
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moops380
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 742
Originally Posted by N1003U
Thanks, but unfortunately I was looking for C.
There is aLOT of business availability on the waw-lax route, but its not released to mileage bargains... Next best would be using ANA points, at least with ana you can get a little creative with routing (and utilize UA/AC and a stopover)
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moops380
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 742
Originally Posted by yurtripper
How is the WAW-LAX route going to be sustainable if the loads are as light as people say? It's not as if LO regularly pack out their C or PE cabins.
Need to keep using it, or it will go away. From my experience, not everyone has 3 seats alone, just the back econ section partially. Probably overall still 65%+ load. LOT charges a premium for the direct flight as well, so if an econ passenger wasn't using points, they might fly swiss, austrian, LH, etc. and save $150+ on the r/t.
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yurtripper
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: WAW
Programs: A3(*G), Marriott Platinum, Hilton Gold, IHG Diamond Ambassador
Posts: 2,554
Originally Posted by moops380
Need to keep using it, or it will go away. From my experience, not everyone has 3 seats alone, just the back econ section partially. Probably overall still 65%+ load. LOT charges a premium for the direct flight as well, so if an econ passenger wasn't using points, they might fly swiss, austrian, LH, etc. and save $150+ on the r/t.
Certainly true that LO charges a premium for direct flights. Even though they're aware that their local market is acutely price sensitive they also know that the locals aren't generally fans of positioning for long haul flights. In countries like the UK, positioning ex-EU is almost a matter of routine, considering how extortionate the APD now is.
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hugolover
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 11,593
Originally Posted by yurtripper
Certainly true that LO charges a premium for direct flights. Even though they're aware that their local market is acutely price sensitive they also know that the locals aren't generally fans of positioning for long haul flights. In countries like the UK, positioning ex-EU is almost a matter of routine, considering how extortionate the APD now is.
I occasionally read A.net and I recall reading the LF for WAW-LAX are much higher than is mentioned here. I believe the FAA publish similar data like the CAA so its possible to compile load factors very easily given the frequency and same a/c type.
Its clear that LOT have decided they can make more money from the footprint of a group of Y seats than they can from W and J and hence they dont discount the premium cabins as much as the likes of OW, obviously they dont have the capacity but its a revenue strategy nevertheless. For example, KRK-ORD is very busy in Y but very empty in J, what seats that are sold in J are not cheap.
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yurtripper
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: WAW
Programs: A3(*G), Marriott Platinum, Hilton Gold, IHG Diamond Ambassador
Posts: 2,554
Originally Posted by hugolover
I occasionally read A.net and I recall reading the LF for WAW-LAX are much higher than is mentioned here. I believe the FAA publish similar data like the CAA so it’s possible to compile load factors very easily given the frequency and same a/c type.
It’s clear that LOT have decided they can make more money from the footprint of a group of Y seats than they can from W and J and hence they don’t discount the premium cabins as much as the likes of OW, obviously they don’t have the capacity but it’s a revenue strategy nevertheless. For example, KRK-ORD is very busy in Y but very empty in J, what seats that are sold in J are not cheap.
If that's the case then why can't they make a go of WAW-BKK? Plenty of rock solid Y demand on that route. They used to run a 767 to BKK up to 2000. They've been talking about BKK since 2015 but nothing has ever materialised. There's no issue on the Thai side (as they've had an aviation agreement with Poland since 1975). The Thai transport minister even announced in Feb 2017 that LO had a agreed to operate a *daily* service with one of its Dreamliners (it was published in the Bangkok Post).
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hugolover
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 11,593
I don't know, but I do think that there will be fair bit of VFR traffic to/from LAX judging by the number of Polka's I've met who have some links to the West Coast. BKK strikes me as being entirely leisure based and one-sided ex-PL/EU. There are still charters to BKK and surrounding in the winter when LOT
are doing charters.
Americans have money, don't have visa issues like Thais and connections through WAW are very competitively priced.
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yurtripper
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: WAW
Programs: A3(*G), Marriott Platinum, Hilton Gold, IHG Diamond Ambassador
Posts: 2,554
Originally Posted by hugolover
I don't know, but I do think that there will be fair bit of VFR traffic to/from LAX judging by the number of Polka's I've met who have some links to the West Coast. BKK strikes me as being entirely leisure based and one-sided ex-PL/EU. There are still charters to BKK and surrounding in the winter when LOT
are doing charters.
Americans have money, don't have visa issues like Thais and connections through WAW are very competitively priced.
But your point was that Y demand is enough to keep routes like KRK-ORD and WAW-LAX going, even with zero pax in J or W. So the fact that BKK is leisure based doesn't alter anything, as the routes you mention aren't business oriented either.
Not sure what you mean about the visa issue for Thais either. WAW-BKK is all about sending poor frozen Slavs out to SEA to escape the depredations of winter, not about having large volumes of people from Thailand making trips to Poland.
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Lack
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 4,859
Originally Posted by moops380
There is aLOT of business availability on the waw-lax route, but its not released to mileage bargains...
It was supposedly part of the mileage bargains a couple weeks back.
Originally Posted by yurtripper
Certainly true that LO charges a premium for direct flights. Even though they're aware that their local market is acutely price sensitive they also know that the locals aren't generally fans of positioning for long haul flights.
Well, the BzP passengers group is still live and well (keeping the RZE/KRK-NYC/ORD flights alive).
Originally Posted by hugolover
I occasionally read A.net and I recall reading the LF for WAW-LAX are much higher than is mentioned here. I believe the FAA publish similar data like the CAA so its possible to compile load factors very easily given the frequency and same a/c type.
LAWA does and the numbers weren't that enthusiastic.
Originally Posted by hugolover
Its clear that LOT have decided they can make more money from the footprint of a group of Y seats than they can from W and J and hence they dont discount the premium cabins as much as the likes of OW, obviously they dont have the capacity but its a revenue strategy nevertheless. For example, KRK-ORD is very busy in Y but very empty in J, what seats that are sold in J are not cheap.
Perhaps the juice isn't worth the squeeze for them with such small premium cabins. They do have a decent pricing every now and then when connecting from the North or West.
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hugolover
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 11,593
Originally Posted by yurtripper
But your point was that Y demand is enough to keep routes like KRK-ORD and WAW-LAX going, even with zero pax in J or W. So the fact that BKK is leisure based doesn't alter anything, as the routes you mention aren't business oriented either.
Not sure what you mean about the visa issue for Thais either. WAW-BKK is all about sending poor frozen Slavs out to SEA to escape the depredations of winter, not about having large volumes of people from Thailand making trips to Poland.
But it presumes that by not selling the W and J cabins cheaply that LO are losing money. That remains to be seen and given LO are a state owned company we aren't likely to find that out. Because LO don't sell their short-haul business class flights as cheap as BA does it mean they're losing money? Or that they would rather sell only a couple of seats for some silly amount and fill up all the rest of their seats in Y? They fly much smaller aircraft that their competitors in Europe. LO don't even dump their Business Class seats for Miles because they don't offer any as part of Mileage Bargains offered through M&M or the special deals for the Polish market.
I don't have any special knowledge why LAX is favoured over BKK but I can see a stronger business case for LAX if its a choice of "where do we go? LAX or BKK"? Well, I would choose LAX. Based on the cold weather that suggests that BKK would be seasonal? Whereas LAX at least has the case for year-round. As you know, LO added extra frequencies on that.
It strikes me that WAW-BKK would be frozen Slavs who wanna go to BKK when its cold. (I feel like Poles are really into DPS right now, BKK is not vogue) LAX-WAW at least has demand both sides and for the Cali set its a cheap way to get to many major EU cities. As I said, LO do charters to BKK and the fares are high, I have checked.
Btw, according to a thread on A.net last year WAW-LAX peaked at 84% LF. That seems rather good for a new route.
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AlicorporateUK
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: SJJ/AMS
Posts: 4,649
Originally Posted by hugolover
according to a thread on A.net last year WAW-LAX peaked at 84% LF. That seems rather good for a new route.
LFs are not really a good indicator when it comes to a given route being profitable (or not) without indeed knowing the actual yields and your expertise will no doubt acknowledge that but the last set of data I saw was all but enthusiastic, I cant remember whether it was the Polish forum or another source but the numbers werent that good.
G
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hugolover
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 11,593
Originally Posted by AlicorporateUK
LFs are not really a good indicator when it comes to a given route being profitable (or not) without indeed knowing the actual yields and your expertise will no doubt acknowledge that but the last set of data I saw was all but enthusiastic, I cant remember whether it was the Polish forum or another source but the numbers werent that good.
G
On the subject of LAX a friend is traveling there shortly and was complaining theres only a few seats left in Business so her standby will most likely not clear but she did note that its something of a staff shuttle in the back. I know of one guy who is taking his family of four plus 4 friends on one flight. But for 500Zl in Y, 700Zl in W, 900 Zl in J, its a great deal.
"Staff shuttle comment reminded me of many QR flights out of a number of European stations. Empty a few days out, then suddenly packed full of staff on departure day.
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AlicorporateUK
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: SJJ/AMS
Posts: 4,649
Originally Posted by hugolover
On the subject of LAX a friend is traveling there shortly and was complaining theres only a few seats left in Business so her standby will most likely not clear but she did note that its something of a staff shuttle in the back. I know of one guy who is taking his family of four plus 4 friends on one flight. But for 500Zl in Y, 700Zl in W, 900 Zl in J, its a great deal
Interesting. LO's J fares to LAX are never cheap (compared to the 'usual suspects') so I'm guessing (just a guess indeed, I'm not really an expert when it comes to airline's revenue management ) the numbers in terms of yields must be good enough for them to sell a seat on the direct flight for 4/5K (GBP - sorry, I always think in Pounds!
) as opposed to the 3K you normally get when booking LH/LX and even OS.
G
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oliver2002
Moderator: Lufthansa Miles & More, India based airlines, India, External Miles & Points Resources
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: MUC
Programs: LH SEN
Posts: 48,439
LO's LAX rates ex Germany are not exactly cheap, but still attractive compared to the rates by the UA/AC/LH mafia.
Code:
Code:
18APR18**18APR18/LO WAWLAX/NSP;AT/TPM 6002/MPM 7202 FQNLO/001/002/003/004/005/006/007/008LN FARE BASIS OW PLN RT B PEN DATES/DAYS AP MIN MAX R01 COW 12757 C - - - + + - - R02 C1RPL 12641 C - - - + + - - R03 D1RPL 10841 D - - - + + - - R04 CRT 21522 C - - - + + - 12M R05 DOW 10657 D - - - + + - - R06 CRPL 20767 C - - - + + - 12M R07 ZOW 9757 Z - - - + 1+ - - R08 Z1RPL 9641 Z - - - + + - - R09 DRT 18022 D - - - + + - 12M R10 DRPL 17767 D - - - + + - 12M R11 ZRT 16522 Z - - - + 1+ + 12M R12 ZRPL 15767 Z - - - + + - 12M R13 FSPCA14 15022 F 416+ - - +14+ + 12M R14 FSPCA28 14022 F 416+ - - +28+ + 12M R> PAGE 2/ 3ROE 0.809166 UP TO 1.00 EUR 18APR18**18APR18/LO MUCLAX/NSP;AT/TPM 5976/MPM 7171 FQNLO/001/002/003/004/005/006/007/008 LN FARE BASIS OW EUR RT B PEN DATES/DAYS AP MIN MAX R 01 COW 3191 C - - - + + - - R 02 C1RPL 2893 C - - - + + - - R 03 CRT 5416 C - - - + + - 12M R 04 DOW 2591 D - - - + + - - R 05 D1RPL 2413 D - - - + + - - R 06 CRPL 4789 C - - - + + - 12M R 07 DRT 4416 D - - - + + - 12M R 08 ZOW 2111 Z - - - + 1+ - - R 09 Z1RPL 2053 Z - - - + + - - R 10 DRPL 3989 D - - - + + - 12M R 11 ZRT 3616 Z - - - + 1+ + 12M R 12 ZRPL 3389 Z - - - + + - 12M R 13 ZSPCA3 3316 Z 100 - - + 3+ + 12M R 14 ZSPL1J 2889 Z + - - +14+ + 12M R 15 ZSPL3J 2389 Z + - - +14+ + 12M R > PAGE 2/ 2
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oliver2002
Moderator: Lufthansa Miles & More, India based airlines, India, External Miles & Points Resources
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: MUC
Programs: LH SEN
Posts: 48,439
May offers. HT: snow @VFT
Originally Posted by Snow
BUSINESS
Amsterdam: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Billund: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Brüssel: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Chennai/Madras: 55.000 statt 105.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Delhi: 55.000 statt 105.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Glasgow: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Göteborg - Landvetter: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Kopenhagen: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
London - City: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Luxemburg: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.06.2018 bis 31.08.2018)
Luxemburg: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Mumbai/Bombay: 55.000 statt 105.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Oslo: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Stockholm - Arlanda: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
ECONOMY
Bangalore / Bengaluru: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Basel: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Beijing / Peking: 40.000 statt 80.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Boston: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Delhi: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Glasgow: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Graz: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Innsbruck: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Klagenfurt: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Linz: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Luxemburg: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (01.06.2018 bis 31.08.2018)
Mumbai/Bombay: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
New York - JFK: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
New York - Newark: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Osaka - Kansai: 40.000 statt 80.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Reykjavík: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Salzburg: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Seattle: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Turin: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Warschau: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 30.06.2018)
Washington - Dulles: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Wien: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Zürich: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (16.04.2018 bis 15.07.2018)
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